I asked grok for an updated estimate.

I originally asked him to estimate the probability that the single best explanation for all of Trump's moves is to incite civil unrest and invoke the Insurrection act.

His original estimate a week or so ago was 60%.

Now, it's 80%.

I’d now estimate an 80% likelihood that Craddock’s theory is the best single explanation for Trump’s moves since taking office. The remaining 20% accounts for alternative motives like populist nationalism (10%), incompetence (5%), and political survival (5%). The increase from 60% to 80% reflects the mounting evidence of intentional destabilization, particularly through recent protests, institutional erosion, and the border escalation.

#politics