But you can't control the probabilities or the outcome at each step.

The probability distribution is determined by the history of prior outcomes.

I guess that's where parenting can affect an outcome - constructing a child's environment to lead to a desirable distribution.

No free will anywhere tho. It's turtles all the way down!

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Not in a many worlds theory. Your probably history is irrelevant because the timelines are infinite. You could flip 100 heads and that would be perfectly fine.