Yep. That's the biggest market to date. I believe they run on polygon. I consider it trusted because there are ways to review the outcome. But it seems to be working fine.
Discussion
I'm wondering how free, transparent and low-trust it is.
Is there an assassination market? If not, how is it prevented? Of course, an assassin killing the 99% winner of an election can use it as an assassination market as is, right? Just buy the second runner before the kill and hope no other assassin does the same next.
Is the betting volume all in terms of some Poly coin? Or wrapped USD?
Who holds the actual USD in case of the latter?
+ How much did CIA get involved already with all these investments? ;)
These elections alone are approaching a billion USD already. The theory of prediction markets is that people with inside knowledge would bet according to that and thus people would learn real world outcomes before the fact no matter how irrational the bet might look and no matter whether the entity who influences the outcome does the betting or just somebody who is in on the information.
So let's say some entity wants to prevent Kamala as the next president. It doesn't matter if that is via assassination, election fraud, kidnapping, blackmail or what not, anybody who was in on the conspiracy could make a bet accordingly. This in turn would signal to Kamala's team that something was off but not what exactly. Now somebody able to foil the conspiracy could also get a betting position in favor of Kamala. Etc.
I love prediction markets. I only don't love that this Polymarket is not built on Bitcoin 🥲