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Really?

My father opened China to the west in 1980, our family office own 32 companies there and have about 80% of our families worth located in Hong Kong and the mainland.

We also own about 22 companies in the US and over 300 in Europe (mostly startups).

My name in Japan is Katashiro and the company my father founded in 1972 is called Densitron which means land of the rising Electron.

My experience and knowledge says it’s mostly NOT smoke and mirrors (although you can use that metaphor to describe any situation to a greater or lesser extent)

hh 2y ago

It makes sense then that you believe the "China rising" narrative, since it would seem it benefited your family greatly. That doesn't change the macro facts though.

Just check the news last year and a couple of weeks ago again about their intention to reform the hukou system once more, aiming at creating an internal consumer economy.

That's pretty much what the US and EU have been doing for the last decades, a desperate attempt to keep up with the ponzi scheme through immigration.

China has skipped all the way through the development path, directly to the terminal decadence phase.

Of course the US and EU are also decadent fiat empires, so there is a lot of room for China to bully and be imperialistic on its neighbors and to exploit Africa. That doesn't mean that they're "rising" in the sense the US did in the 20th century. Not by a long mile.

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Discussion

Peter Alexander 2y ago

Well, I would just add that at the moment China is looking to shift gears to a “quality of growth” model as opposed to the previous period of “growth at any cost”. Let’s just say that it has become a very complex issue internally for the CCP. A ton of resistance to that change. You have seen that all play out here locally over the past 18 months.

The future is far from certain, be that rising or terminal decadence or collapse as the media is now touting.

Where I do disagree is on China imperialistic ambitions. Mercantilistic? Absolutely, but not necessarily looking to toss its military around on any hegemonic way.

mike 2y ago

Declining societies always observe rising economies within their own historic framework and therefore struggle to see the reality.

Any external observer has a different view from an internal observer.

My traits as a disruptor and a globalist is to try to observe events with as minimum a historical bias or prejudice as possible. It’s not a perfect method, but has served me well for many decades.

China and Asia are the next rising economy. What form that will take will be different to the British Empire and the US/Russia Superpower models.