Your points are valid in reference to the current way the global economy operates, but you can also have an economy that is not consumer driven, which was the case many time during history.

The transition from a consumption led economy to one which instead empathizes exchange of value and limited consumption will cause a massive reordering of the world and depending on how quickly it occurs it will be the greatest recesseever seen.

But also as Global Population peaks and then declines in the late stage of this century, we will also observe a collapse of the consumer led growth model. When the majority of the population is retired on a fixed income, consumption will crater out of necessity.

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I'm doing a thought experiment following the current maxi thesis.

Anybody saying they know what's going to happen and these are non issues has drank the coolaid and their opinion can be safely ignored.

life is complicated.

And I'm spreading doomerism about the impending economic collapse from people not having enough children.

are people really not having enough kids in the west?

I know Japans situation but I'm not current on worldwide fertility rate.

It's a problem everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa and even then it will be a problem by 2080. China is majorly fucked from it. The US survives due to Immigrants.

Also anytime in the last 50 years that the UN or other organizations did projection on future fertility rates, they overestimated it. So expect any estimate you look up today to be similarly rosy in it's prediction.

listened to a pod today that said China's fertility rate has dropped 50% in the last 10 years

that's insane

This is a cultural phenomenon and nearly impossible to reverse.

Watch this video on South Korea

https://cdn.satellite.earth/91424d663b9f31d0ed4028f85894dcdae0856179a90b8a1928d368f8d3bd9ac1.mp4