"message polymarket"? Is polymarket not just a frontend for some decentralized betting market? I use it as a source of information as you do but wouldn't put my money there as it's shitcoiny and not clear to me if it can be rug pulled.
Discussion
It's a centralized service.
There were a few decentralized but they did not have traction. unfortunately people prefer ease of use. I consider it an application that I use.
It uses usdc.
What is decentralized about it is the price action, which is a result of trades (including arbitrage with other prediction markets).
So a centralized entity determines what you can bet on and the outcome but the bets are anonymous and decentralized? Or do I have to register to bet? There was some mystery over some whales moving the market but if it's all centralized, the company should know who they are?
You have to register then transfer money to your account just like any web2 website.
Ok. Disappointing. I thought it was one of those things where those shitcoin smart contracts would actually have a real world use case.
There were these smart contract markets, like Augur, but people did not value decentralization vs worse user experience. Traders prefer centralized and user friendly right now.
Best they offer is metamask login. But yes, it is centralized af. There is more security to it, as you need to sign every single bet or take out, so technically they can't rug it as easily, but it is definitely possible. It is also not borderless/permisionless , as US citizens are blocked (ip ban, but if they detect you are from US via customer service or any other means, you will lose the account)
Polymarket offers creator markets, which enables trusted punters with ability to launch their own markets. Quickest way is to hit one of those up, and they will make you a price (and often times even match your bet .. in which case you should be cautious if they are very eager to take it :) ).
Second option is request for polymarket, they will usually not take long-term bets.
Third options, is to use UMA backbone (Optimistic Oracle v3), and spin up your own contract based on their code, as it is publically available. This is most flexible, but you may struggle to find liquidity because you are on your own.