https://void.cat/d/P1Yp548yL5C9Ta1AgYYXe3.webp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBZceqiKHrI&ab_channel=Perun
Shen: Let us play a game. Graham Allison calls it the Thucydides Trap.
There is a natural tension at play between an established power and one that is on the rise.
The established power cannot span the board whacking any rising power moles as soon as they poke their heads out. They will bleed too many resources. And this will upset other players enough to align against the establishment. But it also cannot sit idly, or it will be overtaken. It must choose the time and place correctly.
The rising power must muddy this effort. Cloud its rise in uncertainty. Use clever means to complicate the established power's calculus. Bide its time and hope that it soon becomes too costly for the established power to contest.
In a mirrored hall of uncertain information, bluffs, and counterbluffs, the core decision for the established power is this: To wait, and risk being overtaken. Or to act, and roll the dice.
What do you think human nature directs?
History has indicated a bias towards action, with 12 of 16 cases leading to war.
I hear you protest. "Shen you are writing about nuclear war. Conflict between China and the United States. This is not a game."
Life's theater finds its dress rehearsal in the world of games, where wisdom can be unbound.
#gametheory #china #unitedstates #thucydidestrap #perun #grahamallison #war #geopolitics
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