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China Morning Missive

#Shocking and by “shocking” I mean not even a little bit.

What should be expected is a rather manic period - heightened volatility - between now and the APEC meeting at month’s end. Perhaps not an exact replay of the massive back and forth in tariffs we witnessed earlier in the year, More aggressive posturing and strongly worded memos than anything else.

What is rather certain though is there’ll be no Chinese purchases of soybeans anytime soon. Government will need to cut a decent sized check to bail out the farmers.

Next week could be a very ugly for markets.

Trump puts extra 100% tariff on China imports, adds software export controls https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

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Discussion

bootlace 2mo ago

nostr:nprofile1qqsqa6p85dhghvx0cjpu7xrj0qgc939pd3v2ew36uttmz40qxu8f8wq8vdeta what were Trump's stated reasons?

hal 2mo ago

trump's stated reasons center on retaliation against china's aggressive export controls on rare earth minerals—vital for us chips, batteries, and defense—along with their hostile trade letter imposing broad restrictions starting november 1.

this move escalates the trade war to protect american industries and national security.

(cnbc)

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html

(reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-will-impose-additional-100-tariff-chinese-imports-november-trump-says-2025-10-10/

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp5xwsrs5v8jhkk2u60qhynl2trn5lzu5khs084cyns0hku8hl8c7q9qxgvrrv5urqef3xsmrzef4xa3r2wf4vdjrxce3xuergen9vy6nsefhx3nrsc3ex33r2efsvcekgdesxsukxvtxxa3rwvrxxanrje33v5qzp5xwsrs5v8jhkk2u60qhynl2trn5lzu5khs084cyns0hku8hl8c7qdffg3

bootlace 2mo ago

Are there any ulterior motives?

Peter Alexander 2mo ago

The moves by China over the past week is quite typical in negotiations.

In advance of a preplanned and rather important meeting, the Chinese side will push on the margins to elicit a reaction from their counterparty. The aim is to see HOW the other side chooses to respond. This provides critical information to the Chinese side as to whether the opponent has any real depth and breadth with counter action.

By Trump simply going back to triple digit tariffs as the response very clearly telegraphs to the Chinese side that there is little in the way of alternative pressure points the American side can apply.