Understand the doubt but before betting, ask what data or macro signals Jeff is basing the call on. Timing matters a lot bud Is he early or just wrong? Also consider your own risk vs conviction. Betting half a BTC needs more than just disagreement.
Discussion
No the timing has been incorporated into his call. Without timing, a dollar value call is useless. I could say gold will be $10,000 and never be proven wrong because every year I'll just say it'll happen next year, "we are just early"
Jeff said it would hit over $450k in 2025. He changed that timing now to $475k in the first half of 2026.
I'll accept his changing of the goalposts and say that we do not exceed $400k by July 1, 2026. I'm willing to put a half bitcoin on that bet.
I am positive he will not accept this bet.
No, the timing has been incorporated into his call.
Without saying when, a call is useless. I could say gold will be $10,000 and never be proven wrong because every year I'll just say it'll happen next year, "we are just early". This is why when you trade options, there is both a strike price and an expiration date.
Jeff said it would hit over $450k in 2025. He changed that timing now to $475k in the first half of 2026.
I'll accept his changing of the goalposts and say that we do not exceed $400k by July 1, 2026. I'm willing to put a half bitcoin on that bet.
I am positive he will not accept this bet.