I think the probably of failure grows significantly the closer we get to the end of this monetary cycle. All the guarantees people thought they had in 1928 were completely gone by 1931. I'm not saying the end of the dollar is imminent, but it will happen. Any non-bearer asset is at risk of depreciation or confiscation by the banks. I've tried to get this across to my friend. His mental models won't allow him to think this way.