China 10 year government bond, essentially
This graph makes it look very dramatic? But yes it’s been going down.
Discussion
people dumping Chinese bonds?
It seems nearly every bond is down to its lowest point for its been decades, depending on
The 2yr, 5yr, 10yr, 30yr…
Look at this.
I'm not a fan of tea leaves, but it certainly has some solid hypothesis behind it.
Fwiw, I'll be keeping up with nostr:nprofile1qqszzg7v0zr6y7nz2v8qr5602jx7cez660qlpjm4zdlm80nd0sn56kgpzdmhxue69uhhwmm59e6hg7r09ehkuef0vk3rya notes on the China developments.
Hey nostr:npub1klj98ahaaduuegwcd7lscjeqa0h2680f75r82gnr35pua8ls36xqh9t938 appreciate the shoutout. Been quiet here for a few days for this specific reasons. Have been on more Zoom calls with clients on “what is going on”?
Basically, Chinese investors operate in a closed system. There’s property, but that’s now deemed toxic.
There’s equity/stocks, but given intense volatility that asset class is also now deemed toxic.
That leaves fixed income. Investors of all stripes and colors are blowing into bonds and with so much demand yields are falling.
I would also add, or rather repeat, Keynes is Dead in China. Policy is centered on an aggressive, system-wide delivering process. There’ll be no major (bazooka) stimulus measure any time soon.
Finally, the P2P market for Bitcoin is very much alive and well here in China.
Also, yo nostr:npub1guh5grefa7vkay4ps6udxg8lrqxg2kgr3qh9n4gduxut64nfxq0q9y6hjy , hit me up anytime for a TFTC chat about this and everything “China”.
Great insights!
A full pod episode would be for sure interesting.
I’ll just say this.
There are a truck ton of bad China “hot takes” these days.
The folks in Beijing are fundamentally altering the economy and with that there’s a ton of pain. It’s been, and continues to be, a necessary shift.
And yet, the comments you’ll see are almost entirely from people looking at China through a G7 lens. Garbage in, garbage out of you will.
I’d also add that these very same people are chirping away from the outside. Even the self acclaimed “China experts” haven’t traveled back to China itself in over five years. I can tell you from here in Shanghai, this place has changed massively over that time.
The opposite. Chinese are buying bonds hand over fist.