Paul is 100% right…in 2021. He’s wrong in 2025, albeit with some legitimate, albeit rudely and misleadingly put, criticisms.

A cautionary tale for us all: BTC moves so fast and changes so much that if you aren’t constantly trying new stuff and updating your mental models, then even if you have many years of experience in BTC you can be grossly inaccurate in your assessment of where it is today and how people are using it.

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Can you expand on this? Have the fundamentals (in terms of scaling) of lightning changed since 2021? His argument is that we should be building something that can scale to the whole world, rather than accumulating a "sunk cost" in something that can't ever reach that scale. I think that's a reasonable argument (although he has a knack for rubbing people the wrong way, for sure)

I do not mean that. I full disagree with him there.

I would say his high level meta ongoing point that I think had validity is some bitcoiners(more the X crowd and not the Nostr crowd) are getting complacent and trusting permanently suboptimal solutions, e.g. custodial solutions are fine for me forever and lets cozy up to the government, etc.

You disagree with him on the impossibility of lightning to scale to the whole world?

Yes indirectly in that he assumes complete stasis in both consensus and layer two architecture. meaning if we get CTV+CSFS and ARK gets deployed with those some level of self custody will scale MASSIVELY bigger than he is stating.

What kind of changes in consensus are you referring to?

On a long enough time frame it seems reasonably likely they we get some sort of covenants soft fork. Maybe big or small, maybe soon or very far out. But there’s a decent chance.

Said differently that is a static and narrow minded view of the BC landscape while innovation is happening.

While I think BIPs 300/301 and miner cotrolled drivechains that are user hostile and have zero protocol guarantees that they won’t rug you, change their state, etc are insane, I do agree with him we need to have more open minds to change. The ossify forever crowd got way bigger way faster than I personally think is healthy. We will need at least a few forks to survive.