Let’s talk about halving numerology. Pairing of the massive demand for BTC (partially due to ETFs) with less mined coins seems like an instant recipe for Bitcoin moon. Until you actually run the numbers, as I’ve done here:
Discussion
psychology is the game :)
While I do think the cycles overlapp empirically, I did the math on it the other day and the amount of bitcoin mined in a day is something like 0.07% of daily volume. So best case scenario, you have 100% of new coins go on the market the day they're mined, it accounts for less than one thenth of one percent of the volume.
Now I also did the math on liquidity and supply, the 24h volume for bitcoin is around 8% of supply, often lower. So for every dollar that flows into bitcoin net, you get a rise in market cap by about $12, or $0.0000005 per bitcoin. I'm using a naive rough model but it's useful. That means that in a 24 hour period, the mining rewards alone push the price of each bitcoin down by a little under 40 bucks if they're sold. That means that at most 756 million dollars worth of capital needs to pour into the network daily in order to keep the price stable. Again, if miners don't immediately liquidate that number becomes much lower, so any additional inflow raises the price. But when you cut that in half, keeping in mind that only ~8% of bitcoin is for sale in a 24h period, for the dollar value to get back to that number the price must double. So despite being less than .01% of volume, max, it can have a significant impact on the price.
I doubt the actual reduction of emission is what drives these cycles. I think it's pretty obvious that the psychological impact of the halving narrative does the heavy lifting. But it does have it's impact.