I mean, you could be right. Your argument of increased price makes sense. I still can see a future where 500sat/vB is permanent. If 50% of the world will want to use Bitcoin, block space will just be too scarce for prices to stay as low as they are. People will have to open and close channels to LN all the time. But we’ll see
Discussion
100% of the world will use bitcoin and it could cost hundreds of dollars equivalent to move a utxo on the base layer, like take it to the extreme where one sat is worth one of today's dollars. Practically speaking only whales (owning >= 1 whole coin) and layer 3's like fedi's move coin on the base layer to service their lightning nodes.
There you go. You just said it yourself: 500k sats will be dust.
I don’t believe that only whole coiner will be able to transact on-chain. I think 1m sats will always be economically viable.