Housing about to crash, AI tech bubble implosion, rates being raised for going on 2 years (what goes up must come down), yield curve inversion similar to late 2019, election year next year (they’ll want to set the stage well before November 2024), failed administration that wants to make a name for itself by creating the problem and providing the solution.
Discussion
Excess capital parked in housing will shift when/as boomers pass away. Pricing is calculated at the margins... wont take long for housing to fall in price.
Can never guess the timing of these things.
T10 Rates 4.27%
Inflation 3.60%
GDP growth 5.9%
Much more expensive to weather a recession with rates at current levels. This is what makes 2023 fundamentally different to any time post 2008. ZIRP meant everyone could just run up credit lines whenever biz slowed, that’s no longer realistic.
It’s hard to guess the timing but would be perfect in the next 6 months for one of these