One thing that's overlooked in discussions of health and medicine is the status quo ante of the patient. Like if you’re ostensibly healthy, the only criterion you should have about trying a remedy or treatment is how risky is it?

I’ll experiment with all kinds of supplements, took ivermectin when I had covid because I know all of them are very low risk. Do they help? I really don’t know because I can’t compare myself to the version of me that didn’t take them.

But I didn’t take the mRNA (thank God), and I won’t undergo certain procedures (colonoscopy? no thanks) because there’s real downside if they go wrong. (Plus, it seems psy-oppy to me that men in this society are expected to spread it for a bunch of people in technical garb.)

But if I were in bad shape and had all kinds of health problems, then the possibility of one of these things helping me *might* be worth the risk (still I’d probably just try to get into better shape, and definitely not the mRNA), but you can’t recommend the same treatments for everyone of a certain age, for example, because you’re ignoring this fundamental baseline.

I got mobbed for making this observation on Twitter (well a similar one) 18 months ago, and it was one of the most hilarious and telling back and forths I ever had on that web site. (Seriously, colonosophiles were coming out of the woodwork.)

But that’s a different topic.

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every medical intervention has a variety of unexpected conseguences, most of them bad, some of them neutral, pretty noone good.

So I'd consider to intervent medically on my body if I'm able to identify a clear bad expected conseguence in the not-intervention and a clear good expected conseguence in the intervention.

In this way, whatever would be the unexpected conseguences of intervention, there's a lot of chances they wouldnt be worse than the expected conseguences of not-intervention.

This also prescribe a simple euristic to act in every condition of information: if you cant strogly identify expected benefit/malus dont act.

The opposite of modern world psychosis of taking pills for all little diseases (and even when there no disease but strong social/media pressure).