Governments predate history, so we can’t be certain about their origins. Mancur Olson theorized that governments started when roving bandits decided to settle. Before, they had an incentive to take everything they could carry. After, they took portions periodically to maximize long-run plunder. The stationary bandits also had an incentive to protect their victims from roving bandits, so #[2]​ may be right in that sense, but it’s not as though the earliest governments we know about were minarchies.