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Let's try this again...

Current #macro conditions are almost perfect for a non-recessionary dovish Fed pivot in mid-September.

The closest example in recent history is the mid-1990s Fed rate cuts, which didn't lead to--or coincide with--a major US recession.

Rather, the easing conditions helped initiate and support what would later become the famous/infamous dot com bubble of the late-1990s.

A weak (but non-recessionary) economy and central bank #QE is the perfect combination for rising risk assets (and especially, #bitcoin) in the coming quarters.

Just my opinion, of course. Feel free to disagree and side with the Doom and Gloomers... of which there are many... most of whom don't actually manage money... or manage it well. 🙃

Cheers.

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Rohit 1y ago 💬 2

I don't know enough about the economic machinery as you do, but as an aside, would it make sense that the Treasury would want rising asset prices = larger capital gains tax receipts?

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less 1y ago

In general, yes.

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satskew 1y ago

i think treasury and fed are deathly afraid of significant asset price declines and will step in with printing / liquidity

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