Not even close to the top for bitcoin.
Discussion
140k cycle top
230k
What is your premise for 140k?
Basically check mateys research seems to resonate with me, we've had a lot of profit taking at 73k then 100k then we bust through 100k and get to 120-140 with profit taking again and then we enter cyclical bear year? Something like that
Not a chance.
Give me your hopium
The cost to mine new coins will easily exceed $150k this year, probably going to $200k+ TBH.
2017 mining cost went from $1k to 3k over the year, cycle top was 6x it's mining cost of $3k.
2021 cycle top was significantly reduced, due primarily to the mining ban cutting mining costs in half, but even that cycle the top was 3x the mining cost of $22k at the time.
Assuming we repeat 2017's pattern, we're starting the year at $90k mining cost so it may reach $250k+ by the peak and market price may reach 6x that amount before the crash. We may be looking at $1m+ this cycle before crashing below $200k a year later. We'll see though.
Nope. Don't be silly🙄.
I'm very much not being silly, do you have data that indicates my data shouldn't be looked at that way?
I just think you're being wildly optimistic. I tend to subscribe to the power law model of looking at things, which suggests a roughly 200k top, this cycle. Nobody knows of course, and we will see. We'll see 1M a coin some day, but certainly not this cycle.
I used to subscribe to the power law model, until I looked more deeply into the relationship between the market price and mining cost over time.
There is no doubt in my mind that people are underestimating the potential top for the market price this cycle. I'm not being optimistic, I'm basing this on data.
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