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Unfortunately I agree but the arguement for the last 14 years was that BTC was not crypto its something more because it has to be. BTCs raise happened because people recognized we have to at least try to break the debt based system. Then the people that became millionaires are trying to convince everyone after us that Microstrategy/blackrock ETF shares owning 10% of the supply is good for bitcoin.

nicodemus 3mo ago

It doesn’t matter who owns how much. It will eventually be distributed further.

It’s simple - mistakes are going to happen. Bitcoin is incredibly easy to lose. Very very hard to gain. That’s the point!

Think of it this way:

You lose 10%. Now, to recoup, you have to gain 11%. Lose 30%, you have to gain 42%. And so on.

As it exchanges more and more hands, bits get broken off. It gets splintered.

The ultimate end for any wallet is to have handfuls of sats in it.

It keeps getting said, but people really don’t get it: we are so, so early.

I expect wrench attacks to become common. I expect nation states to seize bitcoin from anyone they can. I expect the on-ramps to bitcoin to be shut down to all but “licensed” bankers, but the off-ramps to be plentiful.

And if not? If there is no interest in bitcoin by the bankers, authorities, the infrastructure corps, et al? Then bitcoin grows ever more slowly while becoming more distributed and more decentralized. If it survives, it just gets stronger.

The only way it dies is if everyone just accepts their fate and rolls over - which history is against, on a global scale - OR something better comes along.

The history of money is clear. Strong money drives out weak money. It always has. Our little fiat experiment? A cosmic blip when compared to hard money. It’s easy to forget that. But that’s the kind of timescale we are talking about for bitcoin. History tells us that bitcoin’s “end game” is likely decades away. So, so early.

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Discussion

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago 💬 3

I agree with everything you said and tell you that you and bitcoiners are walking into a situation where BTC will become irrelevant.

nicodemus 3mo ago

If bitcoin is still operating, it is not irrelevant. That’s how the market works.

So it either dies completely, or it will be a means of escape for those that embrace it.

And that’s always been the deal. It goes to zero or ends up eating everything.

So are you saying it’s going to die?

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago 💬 1

What im saying is not hard to grasp, BTC is turning into a expensive Blackberry. Youll make money trading with someone who sees value in it at a high cost, like an ebay auction bht not as money. There is usage but its path isnt global freedom peer 2 peer money. For some thats ok, for the original vision its a horrible end to a brilliant movement addressing a real problem.

nicodemus 3mo ago

I guess I’m saying your arguments fail to make a compelling case for that. But thanks for your warning - this has always been a possibility.

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago 💬 1

On another note i am warning you like a mirror reflecting something you cant see. Be careful thinking that bitcoin has to win, because you will allow the state to take everything else from you on the promise that they will use bitcoin as a way to help people, the promise youll be financially strong and that the countries economy will survive. Its the same playbook with stocks in the 70s, some people did get rich but its just delaying the optics of decline of the overall situation.

nicodemus 3mo ago

Yeah, see bitcoin winning doesn’t involve any of those things. At least to me.

Bitcoin winning means it continues to survive and hasn’t had 100% of all coins captured by the state - something that I think is impossible over any reasonable length of time.

I don’t think nation states will ever use bitcoin as their currency. Best case is that they use it as a settlement for trade with other countries (that they don’t trust).

I don’t expect countries to ever serve their people, and bitcoin certainly won’t enable that - tho it may hinder the state from harming them on some small scale.

I don’t think bitcoin will make most people rich.

I don’t think bitcoin will protect people’s money from theft any better than a bank can. UX and personal security will always fall flat.

I *expect* economies to fall over and even some nations to die (and be reborn as something else). The EU is done, as far as I’m concerned.

So perhaps your warning is to the foolish. The utopian dreamers.

Bitcoin promises the ability to always allow me to send money where I want anywhere in the world quickly, prevent theft when I take no action, and to prevent monetary inflation.

None of those promises guarantee it as a store of value - but they sure do help.

I think your concerns are largely echoing ideas and values that people have assumed and aren’t part of bitcoin’s core mechanics.

None of those mark bitcoin as a failure. It’s just hard money. So long as it survives, it will continue to be hard money. And eventually it will be used by people where the state prevents them from doing what hard money allows.