The only thing I am bullish on in regards to Bitcoin is its fiat-denominated price (which is a weird thing to say).

Old regime: retail perps set price → parabolic tops, −70% to −85% busts, halving-clock "3 years up / 1 year crash".

New regime (post-ETF): CME + ETFs + dealer gamma set price → longer, flatter upcycles, faster but shallower draw-downs (−30% to −55%), macro/liquidity > halving, mean reversion > parabolas.

We're already ≈31% below the ATH with constant stop-hunts and very little leverage.

Instead of the Bitcoin is "arbitrary data storage" movement, I would've liked to see changes that (1) harden fee predictability, (2) make privacy and self-custody defaults, and (3) blunt perimeter levers.

In other words, changes that keep Bitcoin useful as money.

However, these are exactly the changes that Bitcoin's developers aren't prioritizing.

Instead, we're letting arbitrary data compete with money on the base layer. For Medium-of-Exchange you need predictable fees. Underpriced junk data is a Denial-of-Service subsidy.

I was excited about these changes that improve Bitcoin as money, but then I started digging into what Bitcoin Core has been up to and at this point, I'm like "Just stop changing things. You're making everything worse." 😂

More context: