Russia loses on Ukraine
Interesting article about using public data of Russian state to estimate deads, injured etc.
TLDR; Deads between 40,000 - 55,000, total of irrecoverable losses around 125,000
Key findings and methodology
— Russia maintains a publicly accessible probate registry. This registry is used when property that requires official registration—such as apartments, cars, or parcels of land—is inherited. Not every deceased individual in Russia appears in this registry, as not everyone leaves behind inheritable assets.
— In 2022 and 2023, the number of probate cases involving men, particularly younger ones, sharply increased. If we know how often deaths of people in a certain age group trigger probate cases, we can estimate the excess male mortality—that is, the actual number of those killed in the war.
— Our calculations suggest that approximately 25,000 men under the age of 50 (the maximum age limit for our method) died in 2022. By May 27, 2023, this number had risen to about 47,000. To be absolutely precise, we can assert with a 95% probability that the true number of casualties falls between 40,000 and 55,000 (more details about the credible interval are below).
— The validity of our methodology is supported by official mortality data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). According to their records, the excess mortality of men under 50 in 2022 was 24,000 (no more recent data is available yet), which is only 4% off from our estimate based on probate cases.
— Our knowledge about further losses of the Russian army is considerably less comprehensive. When considering the severely wounded who were discharged from service due to their injuries, the total number of irrecoverable losses could be around 125,000.
— This figure partially includes those reported as missing in action but does not account for Russians held as prisoners of war, or Ukrainian citizens who fought and died for the self-proclaimed forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR).
https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats
Zaps to this post will go to the Mediazona.