We are creeping ever closer to a major climate shock. Record temps I’m March for large parts of India, Japan & China and now in Europe. 😳
https://damus.io/note15wdwpar2gqlurkvr0n6z56fes358ls8pzfjnv3j8g90plsg6lakspq77g2
Discussion
What is a “Climate Shock”
Is it like a climate zap?
A large area wet bulb event, a large area water scarcity event, multiple food basket failures etc.
That does sound like some bad weather
I’m glad we know how to create tools to deal with that
The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time.
Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time.
This is referring to an “new normal” where these events repeat with ever increasing regularity.
Weren’t your datapoints daily records as opposed to decade long trends?
Only reason why I used the word weather instead of climate
Yeah so the records that are currently being broken in Spain are happening against a backdrop of overall warming of 1.8°C pre industrial.
This background warming is what is causing the records to fall.
The same goes for all the areas mentioned and more.
1. How does your model create its projections? As we’ve seen with our dear leaders at the fed, dot charts and lines extended into the future are almost never accurate. Even the same trusted professionals you cite here have been wrong many times in the past with no recourse or correction surrounding their methods of thinking.
2. Given that human flourishing requires the use of more energy not less, we are inevitably heading towards a future where we consume more fossil fuels and coal, not less. Are you someone who wishes to change this reality, or is your concern over global temperatures more observational?
Great to see your interest in the topic. It’s an important one!
1) Climate models are mathematical simulations of the physical and chemical processes that affect Earth’s climate, such as the atmosphere, ocean, ice, land surface and the Sun. They are not perfect, but they are based on solid physics and rigorous analysis of observations. They are tested by comparing their projections with real-world historical records, and they are given a score of how well they match reality. A study published in 2020 found that most of the climate models developed between 1970 and 2007 were quite accurate in projecting global average temperature changes. (See https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/how-climate-models-got-so-accurate-they-earned-a-nobel-prize) Another study published this year found that even Exxon’s climate projections from the 1980s were skilled and consistent with modern models. (See https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0063#core-R38) Of course, there is always uncertainty and variability in climate projections, and some models may perform better than others in different regions or time periods. But overall, the models have been proven to be reliable tools for understanding how global warming works and what its impacts might be.
2) Human flourishing does not necessarily require the use of more fossil fuels and coal. In fact, relying on these sources of energy can and do have negative consequences for human health, security, economy and environment. There are many alternatives to fossil fuels that can provide clean, affordable and sustainable energy for human development, such as solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, nuclear and bioenergy. Many countries and regions have already made significant progress in transitioning to low-carbon energy systems, and there are many benefits to doing so, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving air quality, creating jobs, enhancing energy security and saving money. My concern over global temperatures is not just observational, but also based on the scientific evidence that shows that human-caused climate change is a serious threat to humanity and the planet. The more we can reduce our emissions and limit the warming, the more we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, food insecurity, water scarcity, conflict and displacement.
Hope that helps!