They confirmed and wrote about it "only" 2 years later..
Discussion
The lazy moron Johnson was sent over to stop it
The NPCs can officially update their narrative. Everyone else knew this 18+ months ago
They advised against it due to Russian conditions posing long term risks to Ukraine. It was known already at the time.
In my opinion, if Russia had been willing to demilitarize to the extent it was asking for Ukraine, the deal would have gone through.
But, Russia did not want to neutre itself (only its neighbor)