Believe there’s a gamble going on at the moment. People are taking out mortgages they can’t actually afford under the expectation of rates falling hard in a year at which time they’ll look to refinance. Leverage on leverage as I see it. #dangerous.
Discussion
interesting! btw how do you think of current house market of Shanghai? same kind of leverage on leverage?
Local Shanghai property market, as I’m sure you know, is weak. The trial mortgage easing policy down in Guangdong is interesting to watch unfold. I expect it to be rolled out nationwide prior to the Third Plenum at the latest.
whether property market strong or weak, it's a dead end for plebs-
market strong-> bubble grow -> fiat gamblers win.
market weak-> economy weak-> government stop price crush-> plebs can't afford either.