Here is a question I receive quite often, and the answer is pretty straightforward. The Chinese would prefer Trump over Biden and the reasoning is simple. To the Chinese, Trump operates commercially and while the sorts of conditions to trade aren’t always welcomed by the Chinese leadership, they also know that the rationale behind trade conditions is commercial. That they can live with.

This was clearly the case when the original tariffs were put on China under the Trump administration. Under the Biden administration not only did the tariffs remain in place, but the policy was extended most notably centered on chips and technology more broadly. These new measures, as viewed by the Chinese government, were taken for geopolitical purposes. There were no negotiations as was the case with the Trump team. The decision was unilateral and, in the eyes of the Chinese, meant or the sole purpose of containment.

We can all debate on what approach is best and even whether or not China should be contained. But when you return to the question at hand, it is clear that the Chinese are more in favor of a return to Trump than another four years of Biden.