I would say that it is similar to how the transition from TV to the Internet was, at first many still did not dare to try it because TV was still giving something that made one not let go and only people began to try other options once. that TV stopped giving them what kept them hooked.

the same will probably happen with centralized pages, there will come a point where people will no longer feel comfortable in those places and there it is likely that many will already want to try 'nostr' or other alternatives, only that time has not yet come.