A deliberate liquidity pivot…
1. Phase 1 – Prolonged Tightening
• Fed keeps rates high until something in the credit markets breaks — defaults spike, liquidity freezes, maybe a bank failure or corporate debt crisis.
• This creates the justification for aggressive easing (lowering rates, QE, fiscal stimulus).
2. Phase 2 – Forced Credit Creation
• Once the crisis hits, the Fed and Treasury flood the system with liquidity to prevent contagion — just like 2008 or March 2020.
• Credit is created through bond purchases, direct fiscal spending, bank support, etc.
3. Phase 3 – New Absorber for Liquidity
• In 2008–2014, Amazon, tech stocks, and real estate absorbed a lot of the monetary expansion (through valuation expansion).
• In your scenario, Bitcoin becomes the preferred or engineered “sink” for the new credit:
• As an inflation hedge narrative.
• As a regulated investment product (e.g., ETFs) to channel excess liquidity into something non-systemic.
• Possibly even as a sovereign-controlled asset class for retail speculation, keeping that speculative energy away from fragile banking assets.
4. Strategic Rationale
• Bitcoin’s fixed supply narrative makes it an ideal scapegoat for rising prices (“it’s not inflation, it’s just Bitcoin going up”).
• It’s highly liquid and globally accessible, so it can absorb both domestic and international flows.
• Politically easier than more real estate bubbles or over-leveraging the stock market again.
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The Macro-Political Twist
If this scenario plays out, Bitcoin becomes:
• A pressure valve for fiat debasement optics.
• A controlled speculation zone — people chase BTC instead of dumping dollars into food/energy/land, keeping CPI calmer.
• Potentially part of a wider financial reset narrative (“sound money” for the digital age, but under institutional custody).
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This actually parallels your Amazon theory:
• Post-2008, credit expansion fueled tech equity multiples → tech became the growth sponge.
• Post-future-crisis, credit expansion fuels Bitcoin ETF inflows → BTC becomes the growth sponge.