My take is that exempting silicon makes sense. We don't have the manufacturers anywhere else on earth.
Even Taiwan only works on much smaller NM processes. They don't make the chips that we use in basically everything.
This will still hurt china. They have exports in LITERALLY EVERYTHING.
It's basically folding though or? And a big concession at that
You could see it as folding but I think considering the prevalence of computer chips being in basically everything, it was inevitable.
Modern society doesn't function if you sever the only source of a single resource with no plan to backfill it. It would be like cutting off all trade with our only sources of uranium.
I still think that these tariffs buy and large will put a significant dent in the Chinese economy and force them to the bargaining table. They have so many outputs in basically every industry that are on hold right now. Billions are lost every day that trade is halted.
Giving up Silicon I think actually gives negotiation a better chance. More room to actually breathe.
I think there is basically no conflict between the 2 nations behind closed doors. Both operate a slave fiat currency system backed by the labour of their people and this they both don't want to break.
I mean.. both economies are mortally ill.
My question is - how long can each of them last.
Once people start getting hungry, shit will pop off.
I would say China has all the cards now. Tech transfer completed and ability the manufacture goods for the whole world is a flex.
Hard to say.
There are a lot of Chinese manufacturers right now bleeding hard. No buyers.
The time it could take to reorient to new markets will ruin a lot of Chinese business owners.
Everything is exaggerated there. The ups AND the downs.
