Strategies for Decarbonizing US Light-Duty Transportation ( #46175c50 , v0.04)

A recent study conducted by a UK climate advocacy group has revealed that the average tailpipe emissions from new internal combustion vehicles today are higher than they were ten years ago . The primary reason for this increase is the larger, heavier, and more fuel-consuming nature of the average new vehicle compared to those in 2013. The rising popularity of SUVs, which now account for half of all new vehicle sales in the US and one third of sales in the UK, is a significant contributing factor to this trend . The study also found that this trend is most pronounced in the wealthiest neighborhoods in the UK, with the sales price of new ICE cars in 2023 closely correlating with carbon dioxide emissions. The richest one-fifth of households in England are 81% more likely to own a super heavy-emitting car compared to other income groups .

This study highlights the challenges of addressing tailpipe emissions without negatively impacting the auto industry. It emphasizes the need for policies that impose financial penalties on high-emitting vehicles to incentivize a reduction in their size and emissions. Additionally, the article underscores the environmental impact of electric SUVs and the importance of investing in public transport as alternatives to high-emitting vehicles .

Despite rising gas prices, Americans continue to buy gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. In May, Americans bought over 1 million trucks, accounting for more than three-quarters of all car sales. The love affair between Americans and trucks has grown in recent years, with pickup truck and SUV sales surpassing sedans. Manufacturers have shifted production to meet the demand for large vehicles. Gas prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, but Americans still opt for oversized vehicles due to their luxurious interiors and higher safety standards. The geographic differences in gas prices also play a role, with states along the Gulf Coast having cheaper gasoline compared to the West Coast and Northeastern Seaboard. Additionally, states with above-average truck sales tend to have lower-than-average gasoline prices. However, new emissions regulations in states like California and Washington may put economic pressure on owners of less fuel-efficient vehicles. The shift towards remote and hybrid work schedules has also impacted commuting behaviors, reducing the need for daily driving .

A study from the University of Michigan has investigated strategies to achieve the goal of reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030. The study focused on increasing new vehicle sales to 50% electric by 2030 and found that meeting emissions goals for light-duty vehicles is possible but requires a combination of strategies. The study suggests that in addition to increasing EV sales, reducing vehicle production emissions, reducing vehicle size, and reducing the number of miles traveled in vehicles are necessary. Other strategies include improving gas and EV fuel economies, cleaning the electric grid, and investing in walkable, bikeable, and transit-oriented cities. The study also highlighted the importance of maintaining emissions standards for gasoline vehicles. The researchers used several models to analyze vehicle stock, emissions, and the impact of EV sales. This study was the first to quantify the gap between vehicle electrification goals and economy-wide decarbonization goals in the U.S. and focused on shorter-term goals and state-level EV transitions. The study emphasized the importance of supporting industry and government initiatives to accelerate EV adoption and highlighted the role of individual consumers in replacing carbon-intensive vehicles with electric ones .

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