Plot twist. I had the wrong breaker. I used a breaker finder and it was confident, only a single breaker beeped. I went over the entire panel multiple times and it always beeped on the same breaker.

I figured it out because after that last test I turned the breaker back off, walked back over to my meter and it still showed voltage.

I guess I'm back to step find the problem breaker. I had that false positive issue with the breaker finder before and the cause was the circuit being on a subpanel.

I'm done for now. More on this developing story tomorrow.

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I'm realizing now this means I have no idea what all is on the affected circuit right now. Could be better than 2 lights and 3 outlets, could be far worse.

If my sump pumps are on it I won't be able to just leave it off for ages while I figure it out.

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Maybe 2 breakers connected to the same circuit?

Nah, just a cheap ass circuit finder being worth what I paid for it. The new breaker I found more closely matches my memory of what was on the one breaker and it matches another mapping of some of my breakers I forgot I had done.