the increase in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.9% means that the Sahm's Rule predicting the next recession has been triggered. As a reminder, the rule, created by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, posits the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by a half-percentage point or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. The low for joblessness so far this year was 3.4% in April while October’s rate was 3.9%, the highest so far this year and following two readings at 3.8% in August and September. More importantly it means that there is now a 0.5% spread from the April low and while one can wait for the 3MMA to confirm it, we can now go on the record as saying that the Sahm's Rule has been activated and the countdown to the next recession has begun.