After fist seeing this chart several years ago, I wondered what the hyperbitcoinization phase would look like in reality, and now we may be experiencing it.
Discussion
I've often wondered... If/when hyperbitcoinization and fiat dies occurs then what do all these "don't sell, borrow against" types borrow?
Good question, I imagine there will always be some form of private credit or banking. The death of fiat will probably take longer than most of us expect.
But with an exchange of value for what? And if deflation is the result (as was the case before the Coinage Act of 1873) it's gonna get real interesting. I guess Gold/Silver/other could be what's loaned and exchanged but, again, in a deflationary cycle who wants to loan out? I've never been able to wrap my head around that.
That’s why we have smart people around here like nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe, nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a, and nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z.
Sure, understood... And I've read their treatises. BUT when we've had real world examples of deflation (such as the Coinage Act) we've seen deflation be absolutely devastating to industries that are cyclical/seasonal in nature (specifically farmers).
Now, I fully accept that technology has evolved farming, with industrial scaling and higher yields, but many still rely on loans at the start of the season. So let's consider a major construction project like housing project or hotel. Or an expansion of a business? Short of selling equity (and thus control) in your project you simply won't raise money to proceed.
I mean, it's all theoretical with what technology advances we churn out as the last deflationary cycle experienced on a grand scale was so early in the Industrial Revolution... But I fear that we'd be headed towards a landbaron class and mere serfs who work for them. We'd be trading one set of masters today for different ones tomorrow. As we had in even as late as the 18th century. For as smart and as advanced as we like to think we are (as humans) we're really only 100 years into this current "egalitarian" epoch. Heck, the Russian Revolution was a mere 100 years ago, the French Revolution 236 years ago, and the US Constitution (the greatest freedom document written) is just about to celebrate 250 years of this grand experiment. Those landbarons/serf systems (and, yes, you could claim that "democratic" govts and banks have just replaced them in name only) existed since the 3rd century, so about 1600 years.
I guess I just propose that perhaps a deflationary world would return us to the haves and have it's, the landbarons and serfs, as a global system...
*Apologies for going on a tear there*