GM☕ #coffeechain

Whenever someone leads with "past performance is no guarantee of future performance"

Usually 100% of the analysis is based on past performance.

But no one ever bothers to suss out the difference, or where or why it it would apply, or not apply.

It's lazy analysis.

It's the type of analysis that leads to a naive belief in the 4 year cycles.

And if/when the pattern breaks they will be caught really off guard, because all this mapping of the past onto the future doesn't really identity any fundemental drivers or cause and effect relationships.