They could happen if there is a MASF, and I have searched through every L2 "solution" I can find, and nothing compares to them. I really think they should happen.
Discussion
Miners aren’t going to fork off, they still need the nodes for consensus and there is absolutely no will for drivechains amongst noderunners.
Could happen yes, probability is very low to the point it’s barely worth considering. It’s why I haven’t bothered engaging in any of the debate, it’s clear it’s a non-starter. There’s a lot left to extract from what’s already on the truck today before worrying about DCs.
That’s the thing though, miners don’t have to fork off Bitcoin. It’s a softfork, so they just have to start running the code and mining the blocks. Nodes that don’t upgrade won’t even notice.
Forking off of Bitcoin would mean drivechains are merged, and then another fork without drivechains but with something else (CTV?) would be introduced. That would break the longest timechain, but it would put that fork in the direction Saylor wants it to go.