Climate models suggest the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold has likely already been exceeded, based on 12 consecutive months of temperatures reaching this level by June 2024, even accounting for El Niño effects. Analysis of CMIP6 climate model simulations indicates a 76% probability that long-term warming has surpassed 1.5°C, occurring earlier than previously projected.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02247-8

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