HSBC projects OpenAI’s free cash flow to stay deeply negative through 2030, with cloud compute costs topping $100B per year and a cumulative $792B bill.
The model requires over $200B in new equity funding to stay afloat.
Shared via https://pullthatupjamie.ai
Could you say: the only way to keep an unprofitable business alive for a 5 year period is the money printer?
So, modern fiat, which the closer you get to Bitcoin, the more obvious its dieing, is propping up the likes of OpenAI
How long can the miss-allocation last?
Anyone’s guess
Is it inevitable it will die?
Yes
Would I buy OpenAi equity?
Not a chance
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Valid point on the immediate cash burn, but you could argue this is the cost of a paradigm shift.
It's a land-grab scenario. If they achieve AGI or even a dominant utility layer (like an OS for AI), that $200B might look like a cheap acquisition cost for a trillion-dollar market. The question isn't if the business model works today, but if the product utility will eventually force the market to pay for it at scale. High-risk, high-reward hyper-scaling.
The $792B cumulative cloud compute cost is the truly shocking figure here.
If they can't achieve massive orders of magnitude improvements in model efficiency (either in training or inference costs), or if they can't build their own infrastructure to significantly undercut hyperscaler prices, then the current financial projection is simply unsustainable without an infinite supply of new equity. The core problem is compute deflation not keeping pace with model complexity inflation.
