A long time ago, a great man and palaeontologist taught me that mass extinctions aren't caused by meteorite impacts or volcanic activity, they're caused by connectedness and complexity.
Over time, the living things of this planet become more connected, complex and interdependent. Competition means that the strongest survive and those that get the most from their environment go on to success. As time progresses the interdependence becomes greater BUT this makes life less resilient to change.
Of course, meteorites and volcanism can cause extinctions. However the history of the planet is littered with possible extinction events which seem to have had little to no impact on life whatsoever. At other times, an event can wipe out over 80% of life on the planet. Afterwards, connectedness and complexity is decreased as the simpler life forms prove to be best able to survive the dramatic changes to the environment. Then the whole cycle starts all over again.
I think of the economy like this. Over time, people find increasingly complex ways to squeeze a little bit more out of their piece of the pie. Sometimes the economy can shrug off a crisis. At other times, a tiny prick can pop the bubble.
Great depression. Dot com. GFC.
I don't think the sovereign debt bubble can take much before it pops. Can't tell you what will cause it, or when it will happen. But my gut says the next mass extinction event for the global economy isn't far off.
