Keep seeing people say things like “the debasement trade is happening, but bitcoin is lagging (panic)”.

No, there is no debasement trade today. That’s a false narrative perpetuated by tradfi nerds who finally understood it about half a decade late.

In recent times, rates went to 5.5%, and we had 3 years of quantitative tightening where all post H1 2020 excess liquidity was drained. Today, there’s no debasement, if anything the old system has re-strengthened somewhat (though the fiscal/debt binge doesn’t help). Bitcoin went up on ETF hype at a time where it really shouldn’t have.

Instead, what you’re seeing is central banks swapping dollars for gold out of geopolitical spite and worry. This is quite literally the two old system behemoths duking it out one last time, and the dollar is not winning that fight.

Bitcoin is not a direct part of that story after less than two measly decades, though once the result of the match gets clearer likely benefits strongly.

One day it will be a direct participant too, but that day is not today. There’s zero signal in this for BTC, and most of the narrative is false.