They have to print, treasury liabilities would default. Not to mention Government debt expenses. This isn't speculation, it's watching a water fall and predicting the water will keep falling.
Discussion
That's what we thought in 2022 but they actually did QT short term
Did you see treasuries at that time? Go back and look, they were fine. When they bailed SVB, THAT was printing. QT was in name only.
When they don't print defaults happen, banks fail. When they do print, assets pump and inflation goes brrr.
Predicting trend and outcome is far easier than what the blinds squirrels on bath salts running the show will do at one particular moment.
The thesis stands that the debt spiral forces printing to cover the debt service into a feedback loop to self destruction. Printing or not on a particular day doesn't invalidate that. It only reminds us of time preference.