I think my leaderboard can be used for p(doom)!

Lets say highest scores around 50 corresponds to p(doom) = 0.1

And say lowest scores around 20 corresponds to p(doom) = 0.5

Last three models that I measured are Grok 3, Llama 4 Maverick and Qwen 3. Scores are 42, 45, 41. So based on last 3 measurements average is 42.66. Mapping this to the scale above between 20 and 50:

(50-42.66)/(50-20)=0.24

mapping this to the probability domain:

(0.5-0.1)*0.24 + 0.1=0.196

So probability of doom is ~20%

If models are released that score high in my leaderboard, p(doom) will reduce. If models are released that score low in my leaderboard, p(doom) will increase.