I kinda think the Fed is wanting a lot more banks to fail and you're right, in this environment they will.
I don't think you're wrong. Not by a longshot. It's just that my gut is telling me to expect them to do the opposite of logical because they are operating with ulterior motives.
As far as the ETFs . . . man, I don't know. Again, logic suggests which way this "should" go but I have seen so much hair-brained chicanery that it's hard not to just assume they won't do the logical thing because they are operating with ulterior motives.
I stll think a DLC 'Event Type' for nostr would be dope.