BITCOIN CO-OPTATION: ROADMAP BY PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

Bitcoin is being co-opted by banks, Wall Street, and governments.

It seems obvious, but not to everyone. Some celebrate its adoption because they are maximalists...of fiat.

Soon, there will be no doubt about Bitcoin's co-optation.

I believe this is the roadmap (I can't give exact dates, of course), with the following probability of occurrence:

-Institutional Concentration (High): The risk lies in the fact that most of the bitcoins issued will end up in the hands of institutions (ETFs and banks). As they are the majority holders, real control of the asset shifts from the individual to the institutional system. ETFs are already absorbing supply at a record pace; it is the easiest route for massive capital.

-On-chain KYC (Medium-High): Regulatory pressure on mining pools and institutional nodes will force identification to avoid sanctions. They require miners to include only KYC BTC in the Transaction Data of blocks.

-Total end of Fungibility (High): With KYC On-chain, it will be easier for the financial system to discriminate between “clean” and “risky” BTC, creating a dual market.

-Bank Mining (Medium): Funds already control public mining companies; the move to direct mining by banks is a logical evolution for efficiency and control.

-Scarcity Alteration (Low): This is the most difficult change due to consensus, but if network security falters after future halvings, banks will push tail emission to protect their investments.

As halvings occur, the reward for miners decreases. The original theory states that, eventually, transaction fees will be sufficient to pay miners and keep the network secure, but since it will be hoarded rather than used as peer-to-peer money, there will not be enough transactions to compensate for halvings.