I don’t need to predict price when I can perceive the policy.

Price is the shadow; policy is the hand casting it.

If the structural forces at play persist, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin’s future cycles tilt toward more boom and less bust.

That shift wouldn’t be magic; it would be the inevitable consequence of tightening supply meeting increasingly desperate monetary easing.

The market currently gives a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates at their next meeting.

That’s fine, but I’d still take the 6% odds against it, not out of contrarianism, but because true asymmetry lies where the crowd refuses to look.

I like NGU, but I don’t depend on it.

That detachment has allowed me to see more than I ever expected, because my focus isn’t on a single fleeting price spike, but on a lasting completeness that can’t be printed, paused, or revoked.