Russia's Formal Recognition Of The Taliban Comes At A Crucial Time For The Broader Region
Russia's Formal Recognition Of The Taliban Comes At A Crucial Time For The Broader Region
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias-formal-recognition-of-the
Russia became the first country to https://www.rt.com/news/620960-russia-recognition-afghanistan-taliban/
as the legitimate government of Afghanistan earlier this month.
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This development comes at a crucial time for the region: Trump wants to return US forces to Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase; there are newfound concerns about the https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-west-finally-realized-just-how
to expand its influence into Central Asia.
Here are three background briefings:
* 16 May: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/trumps-desired-return-to-bagram-airbase
”
* 18 June: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/protracted-instability-in-iran-could
”
* 2 July: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/whyd-erdogan-decide-to-expand-turkiyes
”
Correspondingly, the direct consequences of this latest development aim to: bolster the Taliban’s resilience to https://korybko.substack.com/p/lavrov-accused-the-biden-admin-of
) railway and/or make a bid for control over it; and rely more upon PAKAFUZ as a complement or even alternative to the NSTC with the tangential benefit of naturally expanding economic influence in Central Asia so as to gently counterbalance Turkiye’s.
It's here where the economic drivers of this diplomatic decision come into play as detailed below:
* 19 May 2024: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzing-the-strategic-importance
”
* 28 May 2024: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-is-preparing-to-strategically
”
* 27 November 2024: “https://asiatimes.com/2024/11/russias-grand-geo-economic-plan-a-step-closer-in-afghanistan/
”
The gist is that the expansion of Russian economic influence in Afghanistan, the prerequisite of which is formal recognition of the Taliban as that country’s legitimate government, will enable Moscow to pioneer energy and real-sector connectivity with https://www.arabnews.com/node/2606164/pakistan
via Central Asia.
For that to happen, however, Afghan-Pakistani tensions must first abate and https://korybko.substack.com/p/afghan-emanating-terrorist-threats-3c3
to the region must be neutralized or at least contained. Here are some briefings about that:
* 16 June 2023: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias-afghan-point-man-hinted-at
”
* 1 September 2024: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/the-cia-isnt-responsible-for-the
”
* 12 February 2025: “https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-has-a-better-chance-of-mediating
”
All in all, the economic, security, diplomatic, and ultimately strategic opportunities unlocked by Russia’s formal recognition of the Taliban will turbocharge its influence in the broader region, which couldn’t have come at a better time given concerns about the NSTC’s viability and impending Turkish-US inroads. The timing of this development is coincidental, but it nevertheless comes at a crucial time for the broader region, thus strengthening Russia’s stakeholder role and increasing its ability to shape events.
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Wed, 07/09/2025 - 23:50