You know what is scarier than China invading Taiwan?

China NOT invading Taiwan.

The US Stock market has outperformed all other stock markets for a long time.

What if this ends?

What if China becomes financially dominant, without doing anything aggressive militarily?

What if their companies outperform everyone else going forward for a long time?

No clue on probability. China is a black box to me. They seem to be having issues now. Could it be they have a Soviet style sudden collapse? Debt crisis? I have no clue, and it wouldn't surprise me.

But what if the following scenario starts playing out:

- DeepSeek marks the beginning Chinese software dominance.

- China overcomes sanctions and eventually figures out how to make the best chips.

- ByteDance doesn't divest TikTok and Chinese social networks become globally dominant?

I always thought about the China-US competition having a military component, but what if China doesn't play ball? Not getting involved in wars is the winning strategy, and China hasn't been in a war for 40 years. They are winning.

And I don't think sanctions/tariffs are a long term solution. The best and cheapest products will win eventually, and sanctions coddle local industries.

What if China just continues doing what they are doing? They keep improving the sectors that they have an advantage in which are many, and gradually chip away at all others. It's not like the US is going to invade them. They have nukes.

Or do they?