The first two scenarios are already happening.

In Europe we already have massive, completely impossible to ever pay back, government debt levels due basically to government handouts, e.g., "pensions", "healthcare" and "education", which are simply bribes to get votes and to increase the dependency of the population on the government.

The deficit is sustained exclusively by printing trash fake money. There is no other way of financing it. Taxation, even at the outrageous levels we suffer, is just not enough. Plus people are stupid so they can't even see how they're really paying for all that via fake money.

On top of that, governments are already subsidizing the compliant and punishing the insubordinate. True, this is mainly in the corporate world for now, but there are uncountable subsidies and bribes, and punishments for individuals, mainly in the form of more handouts and tax exemptions/additions.

For instance, most EU countries have taxes on fuel exceeding 50%, and sales tax on top of that - in Spain that's an additional 21%. In my country, Catalonia, we even have a sugar tax to punish the consumption of sugary drinks.

The population has already been massively brainwashed and is totally ready to embrace the monthly handout of the UBI scam, it's just that they still haven't figured out exactly how they will manage to deploy it without causing the immediate and instantaneous collapse of everything. I guess they will take the slow route and boil the frog little by little.

So you can bet your ass that ze Oiropeah vill eat ze bugs.