Spent some time looking at my model and adjusted the trend line a bit. I'm going to wait a few weeks to see how things go before sharing new charts.

It appears that the COVID crash lowered the trend line by 12%, not 10%, and the China mining ban lowered it by 73%, not 72.6%.

Rational behind these changes is the price prior to 2020 was most often hitting a soft bottom at 1.05x the trend line. After making my previous 10% down adjustment for COVID the price for the following couple months was often hitting around 1.025x or so above the trend line, and after adjusting 72.6% down for the 2021 mining ban the bottom prices were floating on a soft bottom of about 1.015x the trend line. These were closer than they were before, so I am attempting to correct for that difference.

The changes I made better align the prices seen the last 4 years so the lows float around a soft bottom of 1.05x the bottom trend line as was the case before 2020, so the data is more consistent over the last 12 years.

With those 2 minor adjustments the current dip saw a deviation of 4% below, before recovering to currently being above, the long term trend.

This change adjusts my trend line expected bottoms by about 18 days, so $80k forms the new floor that is unlikely but not impossible to be broken on Apr 23rd instead of Apr 5th. With today's updated trend line position being $78,097.42 we're back above it, at least for now.

We'll see if the trend is broken again or if it holds going forward.

#₿BatteryUpdate