Discussion
What does it mean?
Official recession coming next few months -> money printer goes brrrrrr 🖨️
Gonna be interesting if this aligns with halving 😉
Yield spreads is a 100% accurate recession indicator, same as this one: 
It took a while... let's see how the demographics and AI will affect it going forward. This can really be different this time around.
The chart I’ve been looking at is M2 on log scale.
2020 sent M2 soaring above its historical trend line. Interest hikes of 2021-2022 have been pulling M2 back down.
If you extend both lines forward, they form a wedge, crossing in mid 2024. That’s when M2 will return to the level it would have been if the 2020 stimmy and interest rate correction had never happened.
Based on this, I predict that the Fed will begin loosening in summer 2024 (right around the halvening) to get back to the pre-2020 M2 growth trajectory. This will goose the stock market, just in time for Biden to claim victory over the economy he inherited.
This could be the next Bitcoin bull run, but I think it’s more likely that it won’t begin in earnest until 2025, after the inauguration, when people have spare attention to consider such things.
It's just one of many indicators you can create by playing around with govt bond yields. Bond yields are one of the most important parameters in the economy, so it's worth looking at the their dynamics during the times of prosperity and crisis. The easiest way how you can read these graphs (on surface level) is just to look at how 2008, 1999, 70s looked like and what it looks like now.