Real conspiracies involve small groups with aligned interests and leave evidence over time through leaks or investigations. This would require perfect coordination across dozens of institutions and hundreds of people with no leaks, no inconsistencies, no one breaking ranks. Kirk was doing live events and maintaining his normal public schedule right up until he was killed. There’s a clear, documented trail.
The difference between healthy skepticism and paranoid thinking is asking: what level of coordination would this require, and is that actually plausible? Some institutional distrust is absolutely warranted based on history, but I don’t believe this is one.